The race for OSINT dominance is a highly competitive and rapidly evolving field, as companies and government agencies look to gain an edge by harnessing the power of open-source information. One of the key players in this race is Maxar Technologies, which has been the largest supplier of satellite photos and other imagery to commercial and government customers since 2017. However, in December 2022, Maxar went private, with stockholders accepting $6.4 billion to become a private company owned by U.S. based private equity fund Advent International. Going private gives Maxar more flexibility in making business decisions and it is no longer dependent on stock markets for additional capital.

The commercial space imagery business is booming because it gets its data from OSINT (open sources) whose costs are spiraling downward as technology advances. Maxar wants to hold onto its dominant and profitable position in the industry. There is growing competition in this business sector. Ten days before Maxar and Advent announced their deal, rival SpaceX (another private company) announced a new subsidiary called Starshield to use enhanced versions of Starlink technology plus larger earth-imaging satellites with sensors to provide whatever sensing capabilities a national security customer wants. This includes photos, real-time video and all manner of data which satellite sensors can collect. Potential users include the NSA, CIA and equivalent agencies of American allies. While Starlink has achieved market dominance in space-based communications for personal and commercial users, that largely consists of high-speed Internet datalinks and inexpensive ground links that can be stationary or moving in a vehicle or ship. Starshield plans to do the same with classified data government agencies collect. Starshield satellites are designed to accept many types of capabilities provided by user-supplied modules, including those loaded with secret government equipment, that are designed to use the Starshield interface. Starshield data and control links use much more robust encryption. Starshield will use larger SpaceX SLVs (satellite launch vehicles) to put new Starshield satellites in orbit.

Starshield is organized to take business away from commercial firms like Blacksky and Maxtar that already have billions of dollars in government contracts to provide persistent imaging, including real-time video, of specific areas on earth. The United States provides these specialized imaging services to Ukraine and that provides far superior satellite data on Russian forces than what the Russians can provide to their own troops.

However, while commercial companies are vying for dominance in the OSINT market, there is also a history of government agencies failing to effectively utilize the technology and data available to them. For decades, hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent on photo satellites, yet the troops often received little or nothing in terms of useful imagery. The NRO (National Reconnaissance Office) promised to improve the situation, but progress was slow. In 2005, the troops discovered Google Earth and used it to access satellite imagery, which led to increased pressure on government agencies to make high-quality images more readily available. This eventually led to the NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) and other intel agencies making their data more easily accessible to the troops.

In conclusion, the race for OSINT dominance is a highly competitive field, with companies like Maxar and SpaceX vying for a share of the market. However, it is also important to note the history of government agencies struggling to effectively utilize the technology and data available to them, and the role that commercial companies like Google played in pushing for more accessible and useful imagery for the troops.

• $6.4 billion: the amount that stockholders of Maxar Technologies accepted to become a private company owned by U.S. based private equity fund Advent International in December 2022.
• 2017: the year Maxar Technologies became the largest supplier of satellite photos and other imagery to commercial and government customers.
• Growing competition: in the commercial space imagery business, with SpaceX announcing a new subsidiary called Starshield to compete with firms like Maxar and Blacksky.
• 100 times: the speed and throughput of military communications that Starlink is able to increase, according to China.
• 7 years: the lifespan of the original Starlink satellites before they lose altitude and burn up reentering the atmosphere.
• Nearly ten times more capable: the new gen2 Starlink satellites are described as compared to the gen1.
• 8 million: the number of Russians who have left the country since Putin took power in 1999.
• 1 million: the number of Russians who have left the country in the last year.
• $6.4 billion: the amount that stockholders of Maxar Technologies accepted to become a private company owned by U.S. based private equity fund Advent International in December 2022.
• 2017: the year Maxar Technologies became the largest supplier of satellite photos and other imagery to commercial and government customers.
• Growing competition: in the commercial space imagery business, with SpaceX announcing a new subsidiary called Starshield to compete with firms like Maxar and Blacksky.
• 100 times: the speed and throughput of military communications that Starlink is able to increase, according to China.
• 7 years: the lifespan of the original Starlink satellites before they lose altitude and burn up reentering the atmosphere.
• Nearly ten times more capable: the new gen2 Starlink satellites are described as compared to the gen1.
• 8 million: the number of Russians who have left the country since Putin took power in 1999.
• 1 million: the number of Russians who have left the country in the last year.

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